Predicting the winner of the Academy Award for Best Picture is never easy as there is a large number of factors to be considered, starting with the preferential ballot used to determine the winner, the pedigree of the filmmakers, the critical reception to the films, the box office tally and the track record of the studios. All of these are taken into consideration as we look ahead to the 2020 Academy Awards.
Of course, to help us arrive at an accurate Oscars Betting Predictions, the Oscar nominations of 2020 have finally been revealed.
Leading the charge is Joker with 11 nominations, the most ever for a comic-book adaptation, beating both the Dark Knight and Black Panther.
The supervillain origins story is closely followed by three movies – 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and The Irishman – with 10 nominations each, while Parasite, Marriage Story, and Little Women all picked up six nominations.
Even with one less nomination than the joker, the Best Picture race got even more interesting with the arrival of a latecomer last December in the form of 1917, and momentum is on the World War I thriller’s side. But will that momentum run its due course?
That and many other questions remain as we loom closer to the Oscar awards for Best Picture being announced on the 9th of February, 2020.
So, without further ado, check out the predictions below in order of likelihood to win.
The Nominees for Best Picture
Here are the 2020 nominees for Best Picture.
- Ford v Ferrari
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Joker
- Little Women
- Marriage Story
- 1917
- Once Upon a Time In Hollywood
- Parasite
Leading Contenders:
- 1917.
The Skyfall director’s new World War I epic is a bit of seriously flashy filmmaking. He, along with cinematographer Roger Deakins, films the entire thing as if it were one-take in a move that’s sure to woo some Academy voters.
It has won The National Board of Review’s cinematography prize, and a bunch of Golden Globes. It claimed Best Director for Mendes and Best Motion Picture, Drama, firmly staking its place as a frontrunner. More proof that it’s in the lead? A win from the Producers Guild, beating out all of its fellow nominees.
- Joker.
The Batman villain’s origin story directed by the guy who made The Hangover movies is making an unlikely run for an Oscar with multiple stops on the fall festival circuit, already emerging as one of the most controversial films of the year. Winning the Golden Lion at Venice only increased its chances of becoming Oscar bait, and the Academy loves when a film is actually a giant box office hit — which Joker certainly is.
It won Venice’s Golden Lion, of course. Also, the Golden Frog from Camerimage for cinematography. The Globes nominations also celebrated the Clown Prince of Crime, nominating Phillips, Phoenix, and the film itself. Phoenix won, as did the score. Phoenix was nominated for a SAG award and the movie was nominated for a PGA.
- Once Upon A Time In Hollywood.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has a rare honor this year: It’s both critically acclaimed and a box office success. It’s also been highly debated, as one would expect from a Tarantino film. Hollywood loves a story about itself and it will probably be powerless to resist this film from one of its favorite auteurs. Expect strong campaigns for Pitt, DiCaprio, and Robbie in the acting categories.
It won the Golden Globes for Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy; Best Screenplay; and Best Supporting Actor. Tarantino won Best Director and Pitt won Supporting Actor from the National Board of Review. The screenplay was honored by the NYFCC and production design by the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. It collected a bunch of Golden Globes nominations, and it is also in the Musical or Comedy category.
- Parasite.
The Korean director Bong Joon Ho, whose last two films were the Snowpiercer and Okja, tells a story about the class divide in his home country in a blisteringly unpredictable fashion. This is the one movie all year that has been nearly universally praised.
It has won the Foreign Language Film from the National Board of Review, the NYFCC, and the Globes. Also, obviously, the Palme. Though it’s not eligible for Best Picture at the Globes, it did end up with four nominations, including one for Best Director. It was nominated by the PGA as well. Bong also won director from the LAFC and the film came away with Best Picture from that organization. The National Society of Film Critics also gave it Best Picture. Perhaps the best indication that it could actually get Best Picture is the fact that its cast took home the ensemble prize, essentially the Best Picture equivalent at the SAG Awards, where its actors also received a standing ovation.
Strong Contenders:
- Jojo Rabbit.
Lest you think Jojo is filled with humor that pushes the limits of good taste, let me tell you that it’s actually mostly a sweet tale of a kid who learns how hateful the ideology he’s aligning himself with really is. Audiences gave it the festival’s highest honor: the Grolsch People’s Choice Award, which has previously gone to the likes of Green Book, Three Billboards, and La La Land in the past. By that metric, Jojo is in line for a Best Picture nomination and potentially a win.
It won The TIFF audience award, previously mentioned, and it has a strong presence in the Globes’ Musical or Comedy categories. Johansson got a supporting actress nomination from SAG, and the ensemble ended up in that race as well. Producers Guild also included it.
- Little Women.
Greta Gerwig’s post-Lady Bird move is a gorgeous adaptation of an old classic that has already won legions of fans. Her interpretation of Louisa May Alcott’s novel alters the timeline and changes long-held perceptions of the characters, featuring marvelous work from her former collaborators Saoirse Ronan and Timothée Chalamet as well as a breakout performance from Midsommar’s Florence Pugh. Don’t discount this one in all major categories.
Dern got her supporting actress prize at the NYFCC and the National Society of Film Critics for her work here and in Marriage Story, while Ronan was nominated at the Globes. The NSFC awarded Gerwig Best Director, and the Producers Guild nominated it for its prize.
- The Irishman.
During the 2019 Oscars, Netflix aired a cryptic but powerful ad for its next major awards play. All it needed was a couple of names: Scorsese. De Niro. Pacino. Pesci. Yes, Scorsese’s back reuniting with some of his old buddies for a mob tale about the disappearance of Jimmy Hoffa, an adaptation from the 2004 book I Heard You Paint Houses. There were some fears going into the first press screening at the New York Film Festival: Would it justify its 209-minute length? Would the de-aging look super weird? The good news for both movie fans and Netflix’s awards campaign is that The Irishman is being hailed as one of Scorsese’s best, a melancholy spin on the material with award-worthy performances from all three of its leads.
It was awarded Best Film from the National Board of Review along with Best Adapted Screenplay for Steven Zaillian. NYFCC also gave it a lot of love: Best Film and Supporting Actor for Pesci. De Niro was snubbed at the Globes and the SAGs, while his costars are in Supporting Actor in both.
Possible Contenders:
- Marriage Story.
Noah Baumbach’s latest has won raves out of the festivals, and for good reason: In evenly telling the story of a couple breaking up, he both incisively details a system designed to make people fall out of love and creates dual portraits of people forced to re-examine their lives and desires. It’s easy to imagine Driver and Johansson both scoring acting nominations, with a bonus one for Dern. Nominations for Baumbach’s directing and screenplay, as well as the picture as a whole, could make it one of the rare films to collect the Big Five.
It cleaned up at the Gotham Awards, ending the night with Best Feature, the Audience Award, Best Actor for Driver, and Best Screenplay. Dern has been cleaning up the most, winning supporting actress from a variety of bodies including at the Globes. Driver and Johansson also got Globes nominations. Baumbach was left out of Best Director at the Globes, however, the film was nominated for Best Picture, Screenplay, and Score. There was another surprising admission in the SAG nominations: Dern, Driver, and Johansson were all nominated, but the ensemble was not. The movie got a PGA nod.
- Ford v Ferrari.
If you know anything about cars, the battle between these two car companies is the stuff of legend. You should also know that putting stars of Matt Damon and Christian Bale’s caliber together for an awards-season release is enough to turn heads especially given the positive reception the movie has gotten so far.
It has gotten a SAG and Globe award for Bale, and a Producers Guild nomination.
In Conclusion
The question remains: who will take home gold come February 9? Will 1917 be victorious, or could The Irishman step up and win? Personally, my favorite to win Best Picture at this year’s Oscar is 1917, and that’s my final verdict.
