The highest risk of severe thunderstorms and dangerous tornadoes this year won’t be in the Plains’ ‘Tornado Alley’ region, forecasters predict.
Instead, there will be a shift east, with the greatest threat focusing on the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys, long-range experts at AccuWeather said this month.
“Families and businesses across the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys need to prepare for a stormy spring. Tornado Alley roared back to life in 2023 and 2024, but we expect the highest frequency of severe thunderstorm and tornado threats to shift farther east this year,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said in a statement.
“This forecast is concerning because more people are in harm’s way, compared to Tornado Alley. More people live in the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys, and more of those families are in vulnerable buildings without basements like mobile homes,” he noted.
Tornado Alley is an area of the U.S. where there is a high potential for tornado development. It stretches from Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa and Nebraska.
Last year, tornado activity across the country reached “near-historic levels,” according to the National Weather Service, with nearly 1,800 tornadoes preliminarily confirmed. Activity in the spring “roared to life,” resulting in the second-most tornadoes on record.
Texas was the top state with tornado reports, with 169. There was also an unusually high number in Florida thanks to Hurricane Milton.
Tornadoes led to the deaths of 54 people, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
This year, AccuWeather says there will be between 1,300 and 1,450 tornadoes spinning up: slightly above the historical average of 1,225 tornadoes. An outbreak of severe storms is likely for the U.S. Friday across the central U.S. The storms could bring significant tornadoes. This month, there could be as many as 150, and between April and May, there could be between 200 and 350, forecasters say.
The risk this year is shifting east, according to Pastelok, because of a large area of high pressure over the Southwest that could limit severe thunderstorms to part of the Plains. AccuWeather says severe thunderstorms are expected to ramp up in the coming months, with cooler weather right now preventing tornadoes across the northern states.
By May, however, AccuWeather says a shift in weather pattern will raise the possibility for more storms in the Midwest, mid-Atlantic and Tornado Alley.
“Though it is early to determine where these may form, we are leaning toward the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley based on the pattern forecast and research,” Pastelok said.
AccuWeather also noted the warming climate impacts the production of tornado storms, with severe weather outbreaks occurring more frequently and the risk of tornadoes occurring outside of the traditional spring season.
“Our warming atmosphere can hold more moisture, unleashing intense rainfall rates that can trigger dangerous flash flooding,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Climate Expert Brett Anderson said. “As water temperatures continue to increase in the Gulf, warmer air with more moisture can be forced northward into the Southern states ahead of a cold front, providing an extra boost of energy for severe thunderstorms that can produce tornadoes.”
“Researchers are still working to pinpoint possible links and effects that climate change is having on tornadoes in America,” he said. “One thing is clear: extreme weather and billion-dollar disasters are happening more frequently as our climate continues to warm.”
