Sometimes, football results don’t always turn out the way we might expect. Few competitions have a habit of producing surprises like the UEFA Champions League, which is always full of twists and turns, as the most famous clubs across the continent battle for the ultimate prize in the European game.
Many football fans who enjoy betting on games often look for an edge, something that might guide their hand when trying to predict results. One popular prediction model is Poisson Distribution, which the betting experts at SBO recently covered within their series of strategy guides. This essentially works by making calculations using past results and spreadsheet software, working out averages based around previous results and numbers.
These numbers can then be used to calculate predictions for various betting markets, allowing people to create their own odds of any given outcome, then compare them against odds offered by bookies in order to find value. While some predictive models can work wonders, they also require a lot of work and as SBO explains, the accuracy of certain predictive methods can also be open to debate.
The problem with many predictive models is they are focused on results, although they don’t indicate how a game was won or lost. As we take a look at some of the most surprisingly unpredictable outcomes, beginning with the most recent Champions League final is perhaps the best place to start.
2022 – Liverpool 0-1 Real Madrid
Under the leadership of Jurgen Klopp, having already won two domestic trophies and pushed for the Premier League title until the final day of the season, Liverpool were considered to be the better bet heading into the 2022 Champions League final. Regardless of the resilience Real Madrid had shown against other opponents, throughout their own European campaign, the Reds had this one in the bag according to oddsmakers and pretty much every betting site.
But forgetting that Real Madrid resilience would ultimately come back to haunt the bookies, and of course Liverpool, who spurned numerous opportunities to win the showpiece final in Paris. Indeed, detailed statistics for the Champions League final show that Liverpool amassed 24 shots on goal, compared to just 4 by Real Madrid.
In fact, just as anyone who witnessed the game will confirm, the Reds dominated in practically every facet of the game, apart from the most important- the final result. Real Madrid won via a single goal just before the hour mark by Vinicius, as the Brazilian latched onto a dangerous low cross by Fede Valverde. One key moment which made all the difference, and clinched the trophy, despite all the earlier predictions before and throughout the match.
2014 – Real Madrid 4-1 Atletico Madrid
Predicting results in the Madrid Derby is never an easy task, given that previous form and performances can often be cast aside, as Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid battle for pride and bragging rights in the Spanish capital. This time the level of prestige at stake couldn’t have been any higher, as these two sides prepared to do battle on the biggest stage of them all.
Real Madrid were considered slight favourites heading into the final, although their ambitions were dealt a severe blow after Diego Godin put Atletico Madrid in the lead after 36 minutes. Famed for their numerous 1-0 wins under manager Diego Simeone, thanks to an incredible defensive resolve, when the clock reached 90 minutes everyone thought the club in red and white would claim their first Champions League title. Then with three minutes of stoppage time played, Sergio Ramos headed in the equaliser for Real Madrid.
Morale amongst the Atletico Madrid evaporated completely, which is obviously something no prediction model can ever consider when purely focused on the numbers. Real Madrid proceeded to take advantage and ran riot in extra time, as Gareth Bale, Marcelo, and Cristiano Ronaldo found the back of the net, producing a crushing 4-1 final outcome.
1999 – Manchester United 2-1 Bayern Munich
Manchester United had already won the Premier League title and lifted the FA Cup, by the time they headed to Barcelona for the Champions League final against Bayern Munich. Likewise, the Bavarian giants had also completed a domestic league and cup double, adding extra spice with both teams chasing a unique treble of silverware.
Bayern Munich were undoubtedly the stronger side throughout, having made a flying start to the final when Mario Basler fired the German outfit ahead after just 6 minutes. Manchester United struggled to create any clear opportunities to score, while their Bundesliga side looked comfortably in control. Carsten Janker even had an opportunity to seal the deal, although his overhead kick struck the crossbar in the final moments.
Then the impossible and unpredictable happened. As the fourth official indicated four minutes of stoppage time, amidst chaotic scenes inside the Bayern Munich area, Manchester United struck the equaliser via Teddy Sheringham. Thirty seconds later, the Red Devils forced another corner, whipped in again by David Beckham, nodded on by Sheringham, then rifled in by the outstretched boot of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. Utter disbelief for Bayern Munich, scenes of joy for Manchester United.
