Reform UK set to beat Labour in Runcorn and Helsby byelection, poll suggests, with Tories in distant 3rd place
Last night Labour selected Karen Shore as its candidate for the Runcorn and Helsby byelection. Welcoming the news, Keir Starmer said:
Karen Shore will be a champion for the people of Runcorn and Helsby.
She’s local and her experience as a teacher and serving the community as a councillor will give people a strong voice in the House of Commons.
Labour had a majority of 14,696 in the Cheshire constituency at the general election, with 53% of the vote. Reform UK were in second place (18%), and the Conservatives in third place (16%).
But the first byelection poll from the constituency, out this morning, suggests Reform UK are on course to win. It has been carried out by Lord Ashcroft, a former Tory deputy chair who has been commissioning and publishing high-quality polling for years, and it also suggests the Tories are on course to be completely overshadowed by Nigel Farage’s party.
Here is an extract from the Ashcroft summary.
Reform are ahead of Labour by 40% to 35% when we weight respondents according to their stated likelihood to turn out and vote at the by-election, with the Conservatives in third place on 10%. This represents a 20% swing from Labour to Reform since the general election.
However, when we include only those who say they are certain to vote, the Reform lead rises to 9 points (42% to 33%) – a 22% swing since July.
Only just over half (55%) of Labour’s general election voters say they will definitely vote, compared to 78% of 2024 Reform voters and 70% of Tories. Labour’s chances of holding the seat therefore depend on persuading as many of possible of their supporters from last July to return to the ballot box.
And here are the headline figures.
The poll did not just cover voting intention. Respondents were asked other questions about the government, and other parties, and some of these findings should be worrying for Labour.
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People who voted Labour in the constituency at the last election are more likely to disapprove of the government’s record (47%) than approve of it (44%), the polling suggests. Asked what how they rate Starmer, the responses from Labour voters are quite similar (46% disapproving, 47% approving). And 29% of people who voted Labour last year say the government is doing “much worse” than they expected.
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Cutting the winter fuel payment is the government policy remembered most by voters, the poll suggests. “When we asked people to name unprompted something specific the Labour government had done since July, 27% mentioned cuts to the winter fuel allowance – far more than named any other issue. Next on the list were support for Ukraine (7%) and raising taxes (6%),” the write-up says.
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Voters in the constituency are more likely to name immigration as their top issue (34%), than the cost of living and the economy (30%), the poll suggests.
But there is also some good news for Labour.
-
Voters are more likely to say Labour is going to win the byelection (44%) than Reform UK (26%) – even though the polling also suggests Reform UK are on course to win. This is interesting because what voters expect to happen can sometimes provide a more realistic guide to eventual outcomes than voting intention.
All polling needs to be treated with caution. And byelection polls can turn out to be very wide of the mark. Only 702 individuals were polled (which is less than the sample for a national poll, but more than the 500 people sample often used in byelection polling). Reform UK and the Tories have not picked a candidate yet, and in byelections organisation is crucial. Labour, despite being unpopular nationally, is formidable at mobilising its supporters; Reform UK are more or less starting from scratch.
On the likelihood to vote measure, Labour are only five points behind Reform UK in this poll. A strong Labour campaign could easily make that up, particularly if Reform UK choose a flaky candidate (as they often do).
And yet – sometimes byelection polling can turn out to be right. There is little in the detailed findings that would surprise campaigners familiar with public opinion.
Small parties often win byelections when governments are unpopular, and winning Runcorn and Helsby would not, by any stretch, prove that Nigel Farage was on course to win the next election, as he claims. But if Labour were to win, that claim would look even more fanciful than it does now.
And if Reform were to win as the polling implied, it could tip the Conservative party into panic mode.
Key events
This is from David Cowling, the former head of political research at the BBC, on how to evaluate the Ashcroft polling on the Runcorn and Helsby byelection. (See 11.25am.) In a note he’s sent out, he says:
It should be said that constituency byelection polls in this country have a mixed history in terms of accuracy. However, they have very often set the terms of the subsequent byelection campaign by their suggestion of which parties are in first and second place. This poll is not likely to be an exception.
No 10 criticises Russia’s response to Ukraine peace proposal as ‘nebulous’
Downing Street has described Russia’s response to the US-brokered peacefire proposal for Ukraine as “nebulous”.
At the morning lobby briefing, the No 10 spokesperson was asked about Keir Starmer’s plan for a virtual summit tomorrow of European and Commonwealth leaders to discuss the potential “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine.
Asked when there would be more clarity about what the plans might involve, the No 10 spokesperson said:
The prime minister’s intent is crystal clear.
I think the nebulous responses are coming from Russia, the ball is in their court.
There is a proposal there and in the mean time we are concentrating with our international partners on the best way to drive progress to secure that just and lasting peace.
No 10 defends need for overhaul of welfare system – while not denying report saying half cabinet pushing for rethink
Downing Street has declined to comment on claims that half the cabinet would like Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, to rethink the proposed cuts to disability benefits. (See 9.23am.)
Asked about the report at the Downing Street lobby briefing, the No 10 spokesperson would not comment on what happened at cabinet this week – which is in line with normal procedure.
But he said the current benefits system would “leave more people trapped in a life of unemployment and inactivity” without change.
Left as it is, the system we’ve inherited would swallow more taxpayers’ money and leave more people trapped in a life of unemployment and inactivity.
That’s not just bad for the economy, it’s bad for people too, and that’s why this government will set out plans to overhaul the health and disability benefits system shortly, so it supports those who can work to do so, whilst protecting those who can’t, to put welfare spending on a more sustainable path so that we can unlock growth.
While No 10 has not denied the Bloomberg story, some government sources have said it is an account they “don’t recognise”.
Bridget Phillipson says she wants to see smartphones removed from all classrooms
Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, has said that she wants to see smartphones removed from all classrooms.
As Sky News reports, addressing the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL) annual conference in Liverpool this morning, Phillipson said:
You know that so much of the damage caused by smartphones and social media takes place outside the school gates.
But you know, we all know, that phones are distracting, disruptive and bad for behaviour.
They have no place in our schools, and the government’s position is clear – you have our full backing in ridding our classrooms of the disruption of phones.
And I know that will be the case in the majority of your classrooms, but I expect it to be true in all classrooms.
Phillipson also said she was asking officials to “monitor what is happening on the ground” on this issue, “because this is not a government of gimmicks and rhetoric”.
Earlier this year the Conservatives asked Phillipson to accept an amendment to the children’s wellbeing and schools bill that would have banned smartphones from most schools in England, at least up to year 11. Phillipson said she agreed that phones could be kept out of the classroom, but she told the Tories legislation was not needed because most schools were doing this anyway.
Momentum, the leftwing Labour group, is encouraging people to contact Labour MPs to lobby them to vote against the government’s proposed welfare cuts.
🚨 The Government is reportedly planning to cut the welfare state by up to 6bn.
If this goes to a vote, MPs must do the right thing & vote against.
Use our lobbying tool to write to your Labour MP urging them to oppose any cuts to welfare.
Take action: https://t.co/rXaSJnyDDa pic.twitter.com/iwA5CPwAHw
— Momentum 🌹 (@PeoplesMomentum) March 13, 2025
Reeves announces move to boost defence exports
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has announced what the Treasury is describing as a £2bn boost to defence exports.
She has said the government will increase UK Export Finance’s direct lending capacity for defence. Explaining what this means, the Treasury says:
The uplift, which will increase UKEF’s lending capacity from £8bn to £10bn, will increase the competitiveness of this country’s defence industry, allowing UK exporters to grow their business through sales to our allies around the world, and bolstering supply chains.
UKEF’s direct lending facility provides loans to other governments to buy goods and services from the UK. In 2023/24, UKEF issued £8.8bn worth of loans, guarantees and insurance to help grow UK exports, supporting 650 exporters of all sizes and 41,000 jobs across the UK.
This builds on UKEF’s strong record of support for the defence sector, which has recently included an £8.8bn guarantee for exports of air defence systems to Poland, support for the export of Typhoon aircraft to Qatar and support for the sale of ex-Royal Navy minehunting vessels to the Ukrainian Navy.
The Howard League for Penal Reform says today’s report from the public accounts committee (see 9.58am) shows why the government needs to start sending fewer people to jail. This is from Andrea Coomber, its chief executive.
At the end of January, almost 70 prisons in England and Wales were holding more people than they were designed to accommodate, and about 20 more were operating at 95% to 99% capacity. It is no coincidence that violence and self-harm are at endemic levels.
The government has acknowledged that it cannot build our way out of this crisis. Ultimately, they must reduce demand on a system that has been asked to do too much, with too little, for too long. This is why sentencing reform is so urgent, and why the billions earmarked for building new prisons would be better spent on securing an effective and responsive probation service, working to cut crime in the community.
This is from Damian Lyons Lowe, head of the Survation polling company, commenting on the Runcorn and Helsby byelection polling (see 11.25am) on Bluesky.
@lordashcroft.bsky.social’s polling in Runcorn & Helsby shows Labour have a turnout problem they will need to fix if there’s any chance of squeaking a victory. Just 55% of LAB 2024 GE voters say they will definitely vote, vs 78% of REF voters and 70% of CON:
Shabana Mahmood and Sentencing Council describe talks over ‘two-tier justice’ deadlock as ‘constructive’
Shabana Mahmood, the justice secretary, and the head of the Sentencing Council held “constructive” talks yesterday about guidance to judges which has prompted claims of “two-tier justice”, PA Media reports. PA says:
Mahmood had asked the council to reconsider the guidance for judges to consider a criminal’s ethnicity before deciding their punishment, but the independent body rejected the request.
She and council chairman Lord Justice William Davis had a “constructive discussion” on Thursday, the Ministry of Justice and the council said in separate statements.
“It was agreed that the lord chancellor [Mahmood] will set out her position more fully in writing, which the Sentencing Council will then consider before the guideline is due to come into effect,” both statements said.
Last week, the Sentencing Council published new principles for courts to follow when imposing community and custodial sentences, including whether to suspend jail time.
Under the updated guidance, which comes into force from April, a pre-sentence report will usually be necessary before handing out punishment for someone of an ethnic, cultural or faith minority, alongside other groups such as young adults aged 18 to 25, women and pregnant women.
Mahmood asked the council last week to revise the guidelines in the light of the protests triggered by claims that they amounted to two-tier justice, but in a letter on Monday the council did not accept this was necessary.
Reform UK set to beat Labour in Runcorn and Helsby byelection, poll suggests, with Tories in distant 3rd place
Last night Labour selected Karen Shore as its candidate for the Runcorn and Helsby byelection. Welcoming the news, Keir Starmer said:
Karen Shore will be a champion for the people of Runcorn and Helsby.
She’s local and her experience as a teacher and serving the community as a councillor will give people a strong voice in the House of Commons.
Labour had a majority of 14,696 in the Cheshire constituency at the general election, with 53% of the vote. Reform UK were in second place (18%), and the Conservatives in third place (16%).
But the first byelection poll from the constituency, out this morning, suggests Reform UK are on course to win. It has been carried out by Lord Ashcroft, a former Tory deputy chair who has been commissioning and publishing high-quality polling for years, and it also suggests the Tories are on course to be completely overshadowed by Nigel Farage’s party.
Here is an extract from the Ashcroft summary.
Reform are ahead of Labour by 40% to 35% when we weight respondents according to their stated likelihood to turn out and vote at the by-election, with the Conservatives in third place on 10%. This represents a 20% swing from Labour to Reform since the general election.
However, when we include only those who say they are certain to vote, the Reform lead rises to 9 points (42% to 33%) – a 22% swing since July.
Only just over half (55%) of Labour’s general election voters say they will definitely vote, compared to 78% of 2024 Reform voters and 70% of Tories. Labour’s chances of holding the seat therefore depend on persuading as many of possible of their supporters from last July to return to the ballot box.
And here are the headline figures.
The poll did not just cover voting intention. Respondents were asked other questions about the government, and other parties, and some of these findings should be worrying for Labour.
-
People who voted Labour in the constituency at the last election are more likely to disapprove of the government’s record (47%) than approve of it (44%), the polling suggests. Asked what how they rate Starmer, the responses from Labour voters are quite similar (46% disapproving, 47% approving). And 29% of people who voted Labour last year say the government is doing “much worse” than they expected.
-
Cutting the winter fuel payment is the government policy remembered most by voters, the poll suggests. “When we asked people to name unprompted something specific the Labour government had done since July, 27% mentioned cuts to the winter fuel allowance – far more than named any other issue. Next on the list were support for Ukraine (7%) and raising taxes (6%),” the write-up says.
-
Voters in the constituency are more likely to name immigration as their top issue (34%), than the cost of living and the economy (30%), the poll suggests.
But there is also some good news for Labour.
-
Voters are more likely to say Labour is going to win the byelection (44%) than Reform UK (26%) – even though the polling also suggests Reform UK are on course to win. This is interesting because what voters expect to happen can sometimes provide a more realistic guide to eventual outcomes than voting intention.
All polling needs to be treated with caution. And byelection polls can turn out to be very wide of the mark. Only 702 individuals were polled (which is less than the sample for a national poll, but more than the 500 people sample often used in byelection polling). Reform UK and the Tories have not picked a candidate yet, and in byelections organisation is crucial. Labour, despite being unpopular nationally, is formidable at mobilising its supporters; Reform UK are more or less starting from scratch.
On the likelihood to vote measure, Labour are only five points behind Reform UK in this poll. A strong Labour campaign could easily make that up, particularly if Reform UK choose a flaky candidate (as they often do).
And yet – sometimes byelection polling can turn out to be right. There is little in the detailed findings that would surprise campaigners familiar with public opinion.
Small parties often win byelections when governments are unpopular, and winning Runcorn and Helsby would not, by any stretch, prove that Nigel Farage was on course to win the next election, as he claims. But if Labour were to win, that claim would look even more fanciful than it does now.
And if Reform were to win as the polling implied, it could tip the Conservative party into panic mode.
Prisons in England and Wales on track to run out of space early next year, MPs say
Prisons in England and Wales are forecast to run out of space again in early 2026 as years of government efforts have failed to create the extra capacity needed, MPs have warned.
A report from the Commons public accounts committee out today says plans from 2021 to create 20,000 more prison places by the mid 2020s were “completely unrealistic” and thousands of outstanding spaces are expected to be delivered five years late for £4.2bn – 80% – more than planned.
The report says:
As a result of poor planning and delays, the adult male prison estate was operating at 98.0% to 99.7% occupancy between October 2022 and August 2024 and remains alarmingly full.
Overcrowding is endemic, staff are overburdened, and access to services and purposeful activity is poor. The current prison system has had to focus on ensuring there are sufficient places to house prisoners. While the efforts of HMPPS [HM Prison and Probation Service] staff to avert disaster are admirable, this state of crisis undermines their efforts to rehabilitate prisoners and reduce reoffending.
It also represents poor value for money for the taxpayer, with MoJ and HMPPS unable to make sufficient progress on maintaining existing cells, and needing to rent police cells due to a lack of capacity.
MoJ [Ministry of Justice] and HMPPS have relied on the early release of prisoners to prevent total gridlock in the criminal justice system. Despite releasing thousands of prisoners early, MoJ still forecasts it will run out of capacity by early 2026.
It is relying on the ongoing independent Sentencing Review to prevent this. However, any decisions to divert more people from prison will likely increase pressures on other parts of the system, particularly the Probation Service, which already has issues with staff shortages and high caseloads.
As PA Media says, the report reveals that one reason why more prison places are not being created as quickly as planned is that MoJ and HMPPS assumed they could gain planning permission for new jails in 26 weeks.
The committee is calling for MoJ and HMPPS to assure parliament their plans are now realistic and how they will manage risks, particularly in relation to planning permission.
It also wants relevant bodies to set out plans to assess the impact of prison capacity pressures on self-harm and violence and access to education, drug rehabilitation and work opportunities, PA says.
Commenting on the findings, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, the Conservative MP who chairs the committee, said:
Lives are being put at increasing risk by the government’s historic failures to increase capacity.
Despite the recent emergency release of thousands of prisoners, the system still faces total gridlock in a matter of months.
Reeves defends welfare cuts plan after report that over half of cabinet are unhappy
Good morning. Keir Starmer is likely to spend much of the day preparing for tomorrow’s online summit that he is chairing for European leaders who might be part of the “coalition of the willing” prepared to help contribute to Ukraine’s defence in the event of a peace deal. But Russia’s response to the US/Ukraine ceasefire plan has not been promising, as Jakub Krupa reports on his Europe live blog, where he is covering all today’s developments in this story.
Domestically, it is not much easier for the PM either. This morning we learned that the economy shrank in January. Julia Kollewe is covering all this in detail on the business live blog.
And now we are only a few days away from the publication of the government’s plans to cut sickness and disability benefits by a reported £6bn, which in some respects is an even bigger problem for Starmer because it threatens to blow apart Labour party unity. In a remarkable story for Bloomberg last night, Ailbhe Rea says that at cabinet this week more than half of ministers there urged Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, to rethink these proposals. Rea says:
During the cabinet meeting, ministers voiced their frustration that such difficult welfare cuts are coming so soon after the raid on the aid budget, according to the people. They said how difficult the cuts would be to sell to the Labour parliamentary party.
One person said some ministers are on resignation watch, depending on the shape of the final package. A Labour lawmaker said Anneliese Dodds – who quit as development minister after the aid cut – won’t be the last to leave government as politicians are asked to stomach difficult cuts. A third person noted that Labour was planning a benefit cut that even George Osborne, the architect of the most recent phase of Conservative austerity, didn’t make.
Osborne has been making this very point himself, trolling the chancellor on his Political Currency podast.
But Reeves herself seems in no mood to back down. In an interview on BBC Breakfast this morning, where she was responding to the growth figures, Reeves was asked about the plans for welfare cuts. She replied:
We will set out our plans for welfare reform, but it is absolutely clear that the current system is not working for anyone.
It is not working for people who need support, it’s not working to get people into work so that more people can fulfil their potential, and it’s not working for the taxpayer when the bill for welfare is going up by billions of pounds in the next few years.
So, we do need to get a grip. We need to spend more on national defence, but we need to reform our public services, and we need to reform our broken welfare system.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: MPs debate private members’ bills, starting with Scott Arthur’s rare cancers bill.
Morning: Rachel Reeves, the chancellor is visiting a defence firm in Fife.
10.35am: Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, speaks at the Association of School and College Leaders conference.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
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