With the international break for the World Cup, Arsenal sit five points clear at the top of the Premier League. While most pundits are excited for a genuine contest to Manchester City’s domination, Gunners fans won’t be pleased to know that being top at Christmas doesn’t necessarily translate to title success.
Liverpool 2020-21 (Champions: Man City)
The most recent example of this was only a few years ago when Liverpool found themselves four points clear at the Premier League summit by Christmas, fresh off the back of a resounding 7-0 victory away at Crystal Palace. City, meanwhile, were down in eighth after a stuttering start, although Pep Guardiola’s side did have a game advantage over the Reds. After Christmas, though, the fate of each team was very different.
Liverpool went on to lose six out of seven league games in February and March, a run which compares to their slow start to 2022-23. Despite being out of form, though, football betting site Paddy Power give the Reds odds of 4/6 to finish in the top four. With City and Arsenal dead certainties for a Champions League place, pundits’ football predictions for the fourth side are uncertain, with Newcastle, Spurs, Man United and Chelsea next in line. The latter two made it back in 2020-21, as City stormed past Liverpool to become champions, winning 21 of their remaining 25 Premier League fixtures after Christmas.
Liverpool had gone three seasons unbeaten at Anfield.
— 90min (@90min_Football) February 3, 2021
Now it's back to back defeats to Burnley and Brighton. 😳 pic.twitter.com/wV4FBwECy9
Arsenal 2007-08 (Champions: Man United)
Despite it being 15 years ago, Arsenal are in fact no stranger to being top over Christmas. The 2007 season saw the Gunners adapt to life well without Thierry Henry. Victory in the North London derby took Arsene Wenger’s side to the Premier League summit over the festive period, who went on to lose once in their opening 30 fixtures and lead the table going into late February.
However, a turning point in the Gunners’ season occurred to Henry’s replacement Eduardo, who suffered a horror injury against Birmingham on February 23. The leg fracture appeared to have a lasting effect on the North London side, who went on a run of three straight draws before defeat to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. The Blues would then overtake Arsenal as the late season progressed, with draws eventually being the Gunners’ downfall. Wenger’s side finished behind Chelsea in second and eventual champions Man United, having only lost three matches but drawn 11 times in total.
Newcastle 1995-96 (Champions: Man United)
Once again United were the beneficiaries in perhaps the most well-known of title snatches after the festive period. The Premier League was still in its early days back in 1995, but Kevin Keagan’s ‘Entertainers’ were taking it by storm. With leading man Les Ferdinand contributing up top, the Magpies established a 10-point lead over United at Christmas, extending this to 12 points by late January.
Almost inexplicably, Newcastle let this advantage slip. Five defeats in eight Premier League matches from February onwards coincided with a return from suspension of Eric Cantona for the Red Devils, a capitulation which was epitomised in Keagan’s infamous rant. The result needed by Alex Ferguson against Middlesbrough referred to by Keagan in his tirade ended up being a routine 3-0 win for United. The Magpies ended the season some four points behind their Manchester rivals, having somehow surrendered a 12-point lead.
"I'll tell you, honestly, I will LOVE it if we beat them. LOVE IT.”
— GOAL (@goal) April 29, 2020
Kevin Keegan’s iconic post-match interview is 24 years old today 🤣pic.twitter.com/mvpLfisMLv
While Arsenal will be wary of the odds stacked against them this Christmas, there has been little to suggest that Mikel Arteta’s side will let up any time soon. They go to West Ham after the international break in search of extending their lead even further.
