1. Nathan Cleary v Ryan Papenhuyzen
When Brisbane ran away with last year’s grand final, Nathan Cleary clawed it back, conjuring 17 of the most sublime minutes in rugby league history to steal it 26-24. It secured Cleary’s second Clive Churchill medal as best afield and many are tipping him for a third on Sunday. His chief rival? 2020 Churchill winner Ryan Papenhuyzen.
Papenhuyzen was the man who denied Penrith in 2020. The brilliant young Storm fullback scored a runaway try at a speed of 35.6kph – just one of 46 high-speed efforts of 20kph or more in the match – to ice the 26-20 victory. But the NSW-born No 1 has battled bad luck, mental health issues and a shocking run of injuries since that day.
Cleary’s shoulder is “hanging by a thread” after the Storm busted it in round 24. Yet that won’t stop the bombs he’ll kick at Papenhuyzen all day and which the injury-jinxed Storm star will catch and return at Penrith. How Cleary and Papenhuyzen manage their pain will be crucial to Sunday’s result. A match-ending injury to either star could turn the game – and shatter a brilliant career.
2. Cameron Munster v Liam Martin
“He’ll want to take my head off and vice versa”. Storm playmaker Cameron Munster has no doubt what’s coming from the Panthers enforcer Liam Martin on Sunday. The two talismans have a history of riling each other up in big matches. Munster was fined for deliberately kicking Martin in the 2021 Origin series and Martin retaliated by targeting Munster’s injured ribs in 2023.
Both are big characters for their sides and each burns brightest in the heat of the contest. Munster is a free spirit who often seems not to know what he’s doing until it’s done. He has the hands of a surgeon, the feet of a dancer and the mind of a madman. Martin is an amiable chap off-field. But on-field he’s a Tasmanian devil on heat – a dervish of energy, whether as a damaging runner or devastating tackler.
Munster said this week that he and Martin “didn’t like each other” even when they were teammates for Australia. “I thought we were fine, but obviously that’s not the case,” Martin responded. “If he feels like that, then that’s his problem. It won’t change anything on Sunday.”
3. Craig Bellamy v Ivan Cleary
The Storm boss is into a 10th grand final while it is coach Cleary’s fifth successive decider and a shot at a fourth straight premiership. In 2020, the last time these two sides met in a premiership decider, Bellamy got the chocolates. And in two meetings this season his men have beaten Cleary’s. But the clash on Sunday is the one both want.
For 53-year-old Cleary, victory would avenge 2020 and elevate him to true greatness, alongside ARL/NRL “supercoaches” Jack Gibson, Tim Sheens and Wayne Bennett. The 62-year-old Bellamy is already there, with his five titles in 22 years at Melbourne. Cleary is an iceman, calm and cunning. “Bellyache” Bellamy is a firestarter, brutal and brilliant.
In two teams chock full of stars, the coach who disrupts the constellations will win. Can Bellamy stop Cleary’s back three of Dylan Edwards, Brian To’o and Sunia Turuva? Will Cleary’s creative spirits, Jarome Luai and son Nathan, counter the running game of Dally M player of the year Jahrome Hughes and scheming hooker Harry Grant?
Both sides compete at high percentages and carry injured playmakers into the game. Moments of individual genius win deciders but man management creates dynasties. Which coach will inspire his good players to greatness and his greats to immortality? And will it be Cleary or Bellamy who clinches the title of best coach of this decade?
4. NRL v AFL
Sunday’s skirmish is part of a larger code war: rugby league vs Australian rules.
Over four million people watched the Sydney-Brisbane AFL grand final – the most viewed TV event of 2024 – and the NRL wants a record of their own. Last year’s Penrith-Brisbane decider drew 3.52 million but will Melbourne tune in as Queensland did?
There’s more than TV ratings on the line. NRL supremo Peter V’landys is desperate to claw back some pride after the Swans and Lions swept up bi-codal footy fans to draw record crowds to the SCG and Gabba for home finals. It hurt the NRL, with the Cronulla-Penrith playoff drawing a paltry attendance of 33,753.
The grand final at Accor Stadium is a sell-out but even if V’landys can’t crow over the ratings he can claim victory with a greater spectacle. The Kid Laroi – a Redfern rapper with a global following – already seems a cannier choice than the AFL’s Katy Perry and staging the NRLW grand final at 3.55pm will also secure hearts and minds.
